Tournament Pools Sleeper Teams

A "sleeper" team is a team whose performance exceeds expectations. The following teams, listed in order by team name, are the teams we expect to outplay their seeding.

2011 NCAA Tournament Analysis by Cub Buenning

Total Wins By 2011 Sleeper Teams: 2 (5 Wins Expected Based On Seeds)

11. Missouri

This is a team that I followed closely all year for a SLAM Magazine feature. The Tigers employ the full-court, fast-paced attack of Mike Anderson and can turn a 15-point deficit into a tied-game faster than any in the nation. They have experienced players at every position, but they do have weaknesses that might make a long tournament run a bit unlikely. They lack size to match-up with some of the physically imposing teams, but their brand of basketball is a tough one to prepare for, especially with short preparation time in between tournament games. They do have depth, strong perimeter play and a pace that few teams have seen all season long.

PLAYER TO WATCH: Marcus Denmon is the team’s most important player. He can score from all areas on the court and has the guts to take the big shot or make the big defensive stop. The new kid-on-the-block, Ricardo Ratliffe brings strength down low but also the needed athleticism to be effective in the program.

KEY WINS: The Tigers played few neutral site games this year, but did win its one big one by beating their neighboring rival, Illinois in Saint Louis. They lost an overtime thriller in nearby Kansas City to Georgetown, won at Oregon and pummeled a very good Old Dominion team at home. The most glaring concern must be the Tigers brutal road record in the Big 12, getting wins only at Iowa State and Baylor.

Actual Wins: 0 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

9. Old Dominion

Do not be fooled by the “mid-major” tag on ODU. This is one of the most physically aggressive teams in the entire country. They are not only physically impressive with six contributors that are 6-5 and over, but they play an equally attacking brand of defense; making every possession a difficult task for every opponent. Simply put, they might be the nation’s best combination of rebounding and defense. Wide-load Frank Hassell is the star of this 27-win team scoring in the paint on offense and patrolling the back boards on defense. As will be discussed below, the resume of wins just might be the most impressive stat for the CAA Tournament Champions. Ask Notre Dame in last year’s tournament, this is not a team that should be “slept on.”

Winners of 13 of their last 14, ODU is my #1 sleeper in this year’s tournament. An Elite 8 run is not out of the realm of possibility and I won’t even rule out a trip to the (GULP!) Final Four. This team is for real. While I am not much of a gambler, I would love the “UNDER” on most games involving the Monarchs, they kept NINE opponents to 50 points or fewer.

PLAYER TO WATCH: Yes, Hassell is the star, but my favorite player to watch is junior guard, Kent Bazemore. The 6-5 junior does a LOT of everything for ODU. He is a long defender that loves the challenge on that end of the court and can be dynamic in the open floor. He has developed into a reliable long-range shooter (40%) and is efficient in the half-court (overall 49% shooter). When all of the big bodies are getting the flash and the pub, Bazemore is getting all the loose balls, drawing charges and getting the put-back offensive rebounds. His averages this year were 13/5/3/2.5 steals. See what I mean?

KEY WINS: In the Virgin Islands, they beat Clemson and Xavier. Out of conference, they got quality home wins over Richmond, Dayton and Cleveland State and lost to Georgetown by just three points. In-conference, they got quality road wins over VCU and Hofstra.

Actual Wins: 0 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

2. San Diego St

For a team that has gotten about as little national publicity over the past thirty years as possible, the Aztecs are a legitimate threat to play for a national title. They have the nation’s most productive frontline of forwards Kawhi Leonard, Billy White and Malcom Thomas and a very experienced floor leader in DJ Gay. This team has only been bested by Jimmer and the Cougars (twice) and every other opponent was worn down by the Aztecs ability to play tough defense while operating within an open court offensive system. With BYU’s program suddenly shaken up, the Aztecs immediately must be considered seriously for a trip to Houston. I like their draw as the #2 team in the West.

PLAYER TO WATCH: Leonard is the nation’s best kept secret. For those who watch copious amounts of Mountain West ball (like myself) he has been worthy of All-American consideration since he first stepped foot on campus. At 6-7, and shoulders and hands the size of boulders, the sophomore Leonard gets EVERY rebound near him. He can knock down open perimeter jumpers and is crafty on the low block. Kawhi Leonard, coming soon to a NBA Draft Lottery near you.

KEY WINS: Aside from losing in Provo, the Aztecs beat UNLV in Vegas and the UNM Lobos at the Pit. They beat the WCC’s darlings in both Gonzaga (in Spokane) and Saint Mary’s (at home). They also beat Wichita State at home and the CAL Bears in Berkeley.

Actual Wins: 2 (3 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

12. Utah St

As of Sunday morning, the Aggies are the nation’s only 30-win team and have only dropped one of their last 26 games. As usual with Stu Morrill teams, this one plays defense, shoots the ball well and has a rugged “blue collar” feel. Seven players are capable of leading the team to victory, but Tai Wesley is this team’s heart and soul. This will be a tough team to predict, as their impressive win count is muddied a bit by a super-thin schedule.

PLAYER TO WATCH: Junior point guard Brockieth Pane runs this team, but Wesley is the player that will immediately stand out. An aggressively talented agitator, Wesley is always the opponents’ fans; least favorite player; a role that Wesley relishes. The 6-7 240-pound Provo native (whose brother was a star of BYU) has had a fabulous career in Logan with over 1600-points and 900-rebounds.

KEY WINS: Not much to get excited about here. Aside from a six-point loss in Provo to Jimmer and the Cougs, the Aggies did sweep the remainder of the Utah teams. The one game worth spotlighting was their BracketBuster win in February on the road over the Saint Mary’s Gaels.

Actual Wins: 0 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

5. Vanderbilt

I like this team, a lot. While the SEC often gets overlooked as a basketball league (and rightfully so, I might add) this Commodore team might have the balance and firepower that their recently successful teams have lacked. At Head Coach Kevin Stallings’ disposal is one of the nation’s most explosive scoring tandems in Jeffery Taylor and John Jenkins. Both are capable of putting up 30 on any opponent and each is underrated as just “basketball players.” Inside, Vandy has Festus Ezeli, an imposing body that has developed into a solid offensive/defensive package. His ability to stay out of foul trouble might go far in determining whether this team can make an extended run in the tournament. Of all of the “slept-on” teams from the power conferences, this team is my top pick for a possible regional final run.

PLAYER TO WATCH: Although, he doesn’t lead the Commodores in any offensive category, Taylor is the team’s best and most important player. At 6-7, Taylor scores (already way over 1000-points in 3 season in Nashville), rebounds (gets 5.5/night) and sets his teammates up (2.5 assists per). He is a better athlete than he is given credit for and his long-range development has stretched the court to allow for more maneuvering by the Vandy bigmen.

KEY WINS: Vandy was swept this season by Tennessee and Florida (not good) but they faced a tough pre-conference with several quality wins. In Puerto Rico, they dropped a nail-biter to West Virginia, which was sandwiched by wins over North Carolina and Nebraska. They lost an overtime thriller in Columbia to Missouri (who is almost unbeatable at home) but procured home wins over Marquette, Saint Mary’s and Kentucky.

Actual Wins: 0 (1 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

6. Xavier

Gone is Jordan Crawford, the dynamic scorer that is now making an NBA salary but much of last year’s team that was one game away from the Final Four, returns. Tu Holloway has picked up the mantle for the Musketeers as the top player and the junior guard just turned in a fabulous season. His 20p/5 r/5.5 a line is one of the most comprehensively impressive in the entire nation. Aside from the 6-foot guard is sophomore guard Mark Lyons (a “Tu in-training”) and the inside tandem of Jamel McLean and Kenny Frease. Both inside guys are big bodies, but the 7-foot Frease is a mammoth load to deal with in the post. When the big fella gets it going from inside-out, X is tough to beat.

PLAYER TO WATCH: Holloway is a delight to watch play the game. He is explosive in the open court or on the way to the hoop. Unheard of in the college game, Tu had two (one rebound away from a third) triple-doubles this season and will likely become one of the tournament’s “darlings” if he can lead his side to the second weekend.

KEY WINS: X was just an aberration loss to a 10-win Charlotte team away from a perfect regular season in the Atlantic-10, which included wins at Duquesne, Dayton and Richmond. They dropped a first-round A-10 tourney game in Atlantic City to Dayton, but the time to rest may be to their “big picture” advantage. They played an impressive pre-conference schedule dropping road games to Gonzaga and the cross-town derby to the Cincy Bearcats. They beat Butler at home and beat Iowa and Seton Hall in the Virgin Islands before dropping the final to (my #1 sleeper) Old Dominion.

Actual Wins: 0 (1 Wins Expected Based On Seed)