Tournament Pools Sleeper Teams

A "sleeper" team is a team whose performance exceeds expectations. The following teams, listed in order by team name, are the teams we expect to outplay their seeding.

2010 NCAA Tournament Analysis by Cub Buenning

Total Wins By 2010 Sleeper Teams: 8 (2 Wins Expected Based On Seeds)

3. Baylor

For the past two years, Baylor has been my sleeper team of choice. The talent has been there, but it just seems that, now, they are finally making the necessary strides to be a Sweet-16 or Elite-8 team. The Bears are talented, experienced in the backcourt and long, long, long up front. The veteran backcourt tandem of LaceDarius Dunn and Tweety Carter will pace the team, both scoring the basketball and setting up their bevy of long, athletic big men. While not especially deep, Head Coach Scott Drew has a group that could make some serious waves (my prediction, here.)

PLAYER TO WATCH: The guards are solid, can score and lead the team in all offensive categories, but the three-headed forward monster of Ekpe Udoh, Quincy Acy and Anthony Jones not only look strikingly similar (6-9 range and long) but all can put forth big games. In particular, the Michigan-transfer, Udoh has the most NBA-potential.

KEY WINS: The Bears were a bit choppy for most of the year, until they settled down coming down the stretch. Away from Waco, the Bears got wins against, Oklahoma, Texas, Arizona State, Xavier and South Carolina. Not that impressive, granted, but whenever Baylor sweeps their foes from Austin (as they did this year) it is a great year.

Actual Wins: 3 (2 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

12. Cornell

The Ivy champs are back and ready to make into the tournament’s second round. Seniors Ryan Wittman, Jeff Foote and Louis Dale make up the core of a team that played a pretty gruesome out-of-conference schedule. Unlike most schools of this ilk, this team will not be intimidated both in spirit and size, as the Big Red boasts a pretty tall roster. I thought this one of the largest seeding injustices, with Cornell not only getting a low 12-seed, but having to face a similarly mis-seeded group from Temple.

PLAYER TO WATCH: Wittman has been draining long range bombs since arriving in Ithaca, but what sets this team apart is the big man in the middle, Foote. The 7-footer can bang with size, but is also very crafty around the hoop.

KEY WINS: Despite dropping close games at Syracuse and Kansas, Cornell was able to procure neutral site wins over Toledo, Davidson and Vermont. In addition, they got road wins at Alabama, UMass and St. Johns.

Actual Wins: 2 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

13. Murray St

Usually a team with this kind of “cache” is destined for a 16-seed, but when you get 30 wins in a season, a 13-seed is what the Racers got awarded. The team does live up to its namesake and likes to push the pace, and their balance is almost laughable with 6 guys averaging exactly 10 points/game. Vanderbilt awaits the champs of the Ohio Valley, but don’t count this group out as the Commodores are beatable.

PLAYER TO WATCH: 10-point scorers, Ivan Aska; B.J. Jenkins, Danero Thomas, Tony Easley, Isaiah Canaan and Isacc Miles are the player(s) to watch. Although Thomas’ first name is kind of like dinero, the Spanish word for money.

KEY WINS: They played California tough out in Berkeley and have wins against tournament teams East Tennessee State (road) and Morgan State (home). There’s not a huge sample size as their schedule wasn’t the most challenging.

Actual Wins: 1 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

12. New Mexico St

They have a 20-point scorer, an 18-point scorer and five total players that average double-figures! Running and gunning down in Las Cruces for the Aggie side that stole the WAC Championship from Utah State. An experienced backcourt of Jahmar Young and Jonathan Gibson lead this team and will present quite a challenge in the first-round for the defensive mind of Michigan State coach, Tom Izzo. Irresistible force meets the immovable object. I want to pick this upset, but have learned that betting against the Spartans in March is a dumb move.

PLAYER TO WATCH: Already a 1500-point scorer in his first three years, Young has the chance to be one of the all-time Aggie greats. He is threat to score from anywhere on the court and his ability to score in transition leads to one 25-point game after another

KEY WINS: The Aggies were a bit helter-skelter for parts of the season and struggled to be consistent. They were blown out in road games at St. Mary’s and UCLA, but got a win at UTEP.

Actual Wins: 0 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

11. San Diego St

Winners of nine of their last ten, the Aztecs come in as one of the nation’s hottest teams. The last of four Mountain West teams in the field, this bubble team erased all doubt with a nice run to the MWC tourney title. They are led by a freshman, Kawhi Leonard that finished the season averaging a double-double. Oddly enough, they did not venture very far away from the 619 all year. Only once out-of-conference did they leave the Pacific Time Zone, going to Des Moines (IA) to play Drake. Their game in Providence against the Volunteers of Tennessee is one that I want to pick the upset, but the three-time-zone trip would seem to be grueling for these homebodies.

PLAYER TO WATCH: Leonard is the classic excitable youngster that makes tons of great plays but several mistakes along the way, as well. While his range is still developing, he is very active on the glass and works well alongside the frontcourt pair of Billy White and Malcolm Thomas.

KEY WINS: Other than their recent run in Vegas, there isn’t one signature win away from San Diego for the Aztecs. Wins at Utah, UCSB and Drake are about it.

Actual Wins: 0 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

11. Washington

Like many other West Coast teams (Gonzaga aside), the Huskies didn’t fare too far from home for much of their season. They entered the conference schedule in a good spot having played most of their games in Seattle but struggled for the first half of PAC-10 play. Luckily for their fans, they’ve won 12 of their last 14 and with the elevated play of Quincy Pondexter and the continued growth of Isaiah Thomas, they present quite a challenge. They face a very tough, rugged and “non-west coast” team in Marquette, but luckily, San Jose isn’t too far for them to go.

PLAYER TO WATCH: Pondexter has truly evolved into a top-flight college player. After three seasons of averaging around 10 a night, he has made a quantum leap into the 20 point-8 rebound stratosphere. A 6-6 player that does most of his damage around the paint; QP shoots 54% from the field and is an active presence on the defensive end.

KEY WINS: Home wins against Texas A&M, Montana and Portland are decent but they weren’t able to get anything accomplished away from home until the conference tournament.

Actual Wins: 2 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)