Tournament Pools Sleeper Teams

A "sleeper" team is a team whose performance exceeds expectations. The following teams, listed in order by team name, are the teams we expect to outplay their seeding.

2008 NCAA Tournament Analysis by Cub Buenning

Total Wins By 2008 Sleeper Teams: 6 (1 Wins Expected Based On Seeds)

10. Arizona

This is one of my favorite teams in the field. I have enjoyed watching them play all season long through their injuries, the loss of their coach, the gauntlet that is the Pac-10 and still find their way into the field. When fully constituted, this is one of the most talented and dangerous teams in the country. They played a great schedule away from the grind (which surely helped their last minute addition) including games away from home against two #1 seeds, Memphis and Kansas. Guards Nic Wise and uber-freshmen Jerryd Bayless were a bona fide high-wire act when both healthy, which was not often. The team also boasts some great glue guys in Juwan McClellan and the emerging force that is Jordan Hill. I am not afraid to roll with this squad for a few games. They are now all healthy and surely glad to see a team like West Virginia on their schedule.

Player To Watch – Chase Budinger is my idol. From his beach-volleyball hops (out of the gym) to his smooth high release, the 6’7” sophomore can get his shot off and score on anyone. When Bayless was out, Air Bud picked up the slack and became option #1. It’s in him, and his open court abilities rival that off any high-flyer in the nation. Did I mention I like this guy?

Actual Wins: 0 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

11. Baylor

This school was not to suppose to be here. Just five years ago, this program was in ruins and now they are in the tournament for the first time in 20 years. This team has some guts and experience with guards Curtis Jerrells (who is a strong man) and Henry Dugat, but they also got a little youth in the form of LaceDarius Dunn. Although, the Bears are super deep in the backcourt (I still hadn’t even mentioned Aaron Bruce-one of the “new regimes” founding fathers) they are just as thin up front. With few of the teams in the bottom half of that draw of great size (maybe W. Virgina and Arizona) Baylor might just have what it takes to play into the second weekend.

Player To Watch – Though only 6’1” tall, Curtis Jerrells is not outsized on the basketball court. He is a hard-driving, tough player who knows how to score and distribute.

Actual Wins: 0 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

7. Butler

I am not sure what happened with this seed. A seven-spot for a team that is nationally-ranked in the top ten?!?! Following the blueprint of Gonzaga before them, the Butler Bulldogs are no longer a “Cinderella” in my book. They have an NBA-ready point guard in senior Mike Green, a posse of deadly long-range gunslingers, and a bevy of quality wins. How then, are they still getting lassoed with this kind of seed? With non-conference wins over Ohio State, Virginia Tech, Florida State, and Southern Illinois, the Bulldogs did enough while not in Horizon play to warrant a better seeding. Senior AJ Graves, a deadly shooter and inspirational leader who has seemingly been at Butler for over a decade, is the perfect backcourt match to Green. Throw in fact that the Bulldogs first-round opponent is South Alabama in the Birmingham sub-regional and I would assume the Indianapolis-based committee is getting some local heat. Did I mention, I thought they got screwed?

Player To Watch – While the guards get most of the national attention, freshmen forward Matt Howard has given the Bulldogs a little juice up front. A local kid who spurned the larger in-state hoop powerhouses, Howard is crafty around the hoop, a selfless passer, and someone who can get to the line.

Actual Wins: 1 (1 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

10. Davidson

Back for another year of dancing, this Davidson squad is coming in on the heels of 23-straight Southern Conference wins and is primed to make a first-round upset. Sophomore sensation Stephen Curry is back and bombing more than ever. He put up gaudy numbers of 25 p/g on 44% shooting from behind the arc, and believe me, this kid will not get cheated shooting the ball. This team is more than just Curry, however. The nation’s leading assist man is senior point-guard Jason Richards, who along with his eight dimes a contest also chips in with 13 points per. Although, their conference wins are not that impressive, their losses might be. Getting North Carolina, Duke, and UCLA on your schedule doesn’t hurt your chances come March.

Player To Watch – If you have not seen Curry play, you must try to see Friday’s Gonzaga/Davidson game. He gets up about 10 3’s each night and his aforementioned percentage speaks for itself. Hey, it’s in the genes! The sophomore is the son of long-time NBA gunner, Dell Curry.

Actual Wins: 3 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

10. St. Mary's

This was one of the pleasant surprises of this year’s draw, seeing the WCC get three bids after San Diego (WEST #13) stole the conference tourney. The Gaels are an impressive team with a solid resume that includes wins over five different tournament teams. The pace is pushed by the amazing abilities of freshman point guard, Paddy Mills. The Aussie-native has been a revelation for the 25-win team. Up front, the Gaels get consistent production from Omar Samhan and Diamon Simpson who not only play tough defense but are often the starters to the fast-paced transition offense. Miami wants nothing of this team from the east bay.

Player To Watch – Mills pushes the pace and probes like few other guards in the nation. His ability to grab an outlet pass and be at the rim, just seconds later is remarkable. The team’s ability to fast break is also aided by the youngster’s ability to turn steals into points.

Actual Wins: 0 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

12. Western Ky

16 conference wins and 27 total for the Hilltoppers out of the Sun Belt. They are a team that is solid across the board, but blessed with a special player by the name of Courtney Lee. They narrowly missed wins over Gonzaga and Tennessee, which bodes well against a team like Drake, which runs an identical system. I like both of the teams in this match-up so it is a true toss-up.

Player To Watch – The aforementioned Lee is going to be drafted by the NBA this summer. He has the ability to score from anywhere on the court and his year was capped by topping the 2000-point mark.

Actual Wins: 2 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)