Tournament Pools Sleeper Teams

A "sleeper" team is a team whose performance exceeds expectations. The following teams, listed in order by team name, are the teams we expect to outplay their seeding.

2007 NCAA Tournament Analysis by Matt Satten

Total Wins By 2007 Sleeper Teams: 7 (3 Wins Expected Based On Seeds)

13. Albany

The Great Danes nearly made history last season as the 16-seed led then No. 1 seed UConn by 12 points in the second half before fading down the stretch. Back at the dance after eking by Vermont in the America East championship game, Albany is poised for another history-making effort. Two-time conference POY Jamar Wilson does it all on the basketball court (led the conference in scoring, second in assists, and fifth in rebounding), and has the ability to will his team to victory.

Key Player: Wilson nearly became a household name last season for his play against the Huskies. Now he’ll have a second chance to etch his name into the annals of NCAA history.

Actual Wins: 0 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

10. Georgia Tech

Despite just an 8-8 conference record, the Yellow Jackets earned an at large invite to the ball. That’s what happens when you play in a powerhouse conference like the ACC that placed seven teams into this year’s tourney. G. Tech is a very young team that has matured throughout the season and gotten more physical too, a trait that will serve them well come the final five minutes of a tight game. Nearly 30 ppg come from freshman starters Javaris Crittenton and Thaddeus Young.

Key Player: A superstar in the making, Crittenton was one of two freshman invited to attend the ABCD camp four years ago, so he’s dealt with pressure before – just not at this level. At 6-5 he creates huge matchup problems for opposing PGs and he’s the team’s top scorer too.

Actual Wins: 0 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

10. Gonzaga

If it’s possible to call a team a perennial Cinderella, it’s Gonzaga. Consistently under-ranked for how they perform at the Dance, you’d think they obtained an ounce of respect by now. Luckily, tourney-tested coach Mark Few can use that as motivation for his troops as they embark on yet another voyage this season (they’ve traveled more miles than any other program this year). Since they’ve balled seemingly everywhere on this great green earth, the Zags are confident in any situation. They’ll miss suspended F Josh Heytvelt's production of 15 ppg and 7 rpg.

Key Player: Senior PG Derek Raivio continues the tradition of excellent PGs who can shoot the lights out. He’s an android at the free throw line (95.5%) and a sniper from long distance (41.5%).

Actual Wins: 0 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

12. Long Beach St

The Big West champs make for a strong upset pick if they didn’t happen to be playing a mirror image of themselves in Tennesseee. Both teams run three or four guard offenses to push the tempo for easy buckets and both struggle to rebound the ball. It will be interesting to see how their similar styles contrast. One major factor on the 49ers side is their current hot streak which includes victories in 22 of their last 25 games. The other item working in their favor is a starting five composed of five seniors, all capable of taking over the game. Nixon is Big West player of the year

Key Player: MVP of the both the league and the conference tourney, senior guard Aaron Nixon is the team’s leading scorer and the catalyst of their offense.

Actual Wins: 0 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

7. Nevada

Nevada is a real sleeper team here thanks to stud Nick Fazekas, a likely All-American after capturing his third straight WAC Player of the Year award. The Wolf Pack won the regular season title thanks to Fazekas’ pinpoint shooting and their solid guard play. For instance, Marcellus Kemp can explode at any time and Ramon Sessions is solid at the point. They defend well, however, top dog Kyle Shiloh is dealing with a hamstring injury that could limit his effectiveness. Nevertheless, the Wolf Pack have the tourney experience, the star power, the defense and the three-point shooting necessary to make it to the second weekend or beyond.

Key Player: Hands down, it’s Fazekas. A future NBA player, the 6-11 senior has such sick percentages, they should be quarantined. He’s drilling 58% of his FG attempts, 85% of his FT attempts and 46 percent of his three-pointers while averaging 20.5 ppg and 11.2 rpg. He very well might be the second greatest offensive force in the country behind Texas’ Durant.

Actual Wins: 1 (1 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

14. Oral Roberts

Here’s a sleeper team if there ever was one. They have all the ingredients you look for including a big-time win over a top seed (Kansas), star power (three-time Mid-Con POY Caleb Green), clutch guard-play (Sr. Ken Tutt has seven game-winners in his career) and a hot streak entering the tourney (8-2 in the last ten and won the Mid-Con tourney). Tutt recently joined Green at over 2,000 career points making them only the seventh set of teammates in NCAA history to accomplish that feat.

Key Player: Green is a legit star and is excellent at getting to the free throw line with over 10 attempts per game. Not only is he fouling out the other team’s big men, but he’s putting teams in the penalty early, creating more scoring opportunities from the line later in the game.

Actual Wins: 0 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

14. Pennsylvania

The Ivy League champs are back to give it the old college try again. Always owning a high basketball IQ helps, but having one of the top thieves in the country in two-time Ivy POY Ibrahim Jaaber doesn’t hurt either. If he can stick with Law and big man Mark Zoller can hold his own like he’s done all year in the post, the Quakers might actually cause a quake in the brackets. Then again, those are two very big ifs.

Key Player: Jaaber must be a two-way force, but his main priority has to be locking down Law. While that’s no easy task, the career steals leader in the Ivy league is easily the best option for the job.

Actual Wins: 0 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

5. Tennessee

Five words that scare every Tennessee opponent: Bruce Pearl in body paint. While the coach will (most likely) be donning a suit, the Volunteers are still downright scary now that Chris Lofton and his silky smooth stroke are healthy. Their offense is particularly good when the freshman guards are playing well like they are currently. They often play four guards at a time, constantly pushing the tempo on offense and wreaking havoc on defense, much like Villanova did a year ago as they earned a No. 1 seed. They very nearly upset Ohio State earlier this year, so this SEC-forged squad knows they can hang with anyone, but they’ll run into trouble against bigger teams who rebound well and can dictate the tempo.

Key Player: Their season goes as SEC POY Lofton goes. When he missed a few games with a sprained ankle, the team slumped dramatically. Upon his return, they were practically unbeatable.

Actual Wins: 2 (1 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

6. Vanderbilt

While they might not get the respect they deserve, it’s hard to ignore a team that beat Florida this year. Swingman Derrick Byars is a star and was voted the SEC Player of the Year for his brilliant all-around game and the way he improves his play against ranked opponents. While they enjoyed early season success, the 6-seed might seem a little high given their recent shoddy play. Still, they have outstanding three-point shooting, terrific team defense, and great size at the guard position, especially Shan Foster at 6-7.

Key Player: Byars is the unquestioned star, but it’s Daniel Cage who led the SEC in three-point percentage with a mark of 45.8 percent. If he’s hot, it will be impossible to focus on Byars and vice versa.

Actual Wins: 2 (1 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

11. Virginia Commonwealth

You got to love two teams making it to the Dance from the Colonial league – unless you were a bubble team of course. The first thing to take note of with VCU is the CAA Coach of the Year Anthony Grant who was an assistant on Florida last year when they won it all. The second thing that’s worth pointing out is there trapping defense, which they will use anywhere and everywhere. Lastly, their troika of starting guards – Walker, Maynor and Pellot-Rosa – are not only the top scorers on the team, but all three are connecting on over 40 percent of their treys and 77 percent of their free throws. While they may not have a lot of size, they will annoy the heck out of a young team like Duke.

Key Player: Maynor has taken over games before and isn’t afraid to do it again. An upset or two isn’t farfetched.

Actual Wins: 1 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

11. Winthrop

Proud owners of an 18-game win streak heading into the dance, Winthrop is the sexy pick to be this year’s George Mason. For starters, they played the first undefeated league season in Big South history at 14-0. All five starters have been two the Dance each of the last two years but have yet to taste victory. A great asset is that they have some serious size for a mid-major team and feature three players on the All Big South team. It’s no wonder that they own the nation’s best defensive rebound rate. And those four losses? They all came against teams ranked in the top 25 and they narrowly missed winning two of them.

Key Player: The man in the middle for the Eagles is 6-10 senior Craig Bradshaw. He’s the top rebounder and a reliable scorer so he must avoid early foul trouble.

Actual Wins: 1 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

14. Wright St

If it wasn’t for their win over Butler in the Horizon League championship, the Raiders would be NIT bound right now. Instead, all the lucky fans of the game of college basketball will get to see 5-11 senior DeShawn Wood tickle the twine all day long. Their defense is quite stingy and the Ohio-based institution of higher learning is adept at knocking down treys, so they are more than capable of an upset, especially if they figure out ways to score against Pitt’s notoriously stingy D.

Key Player: Wood is a joy to watch and is the Horizon League’s all-time leader in minutes played. Here’s hoping he gets to add more than just 40 more to his resume.

Actual Wins: 0 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)