Tournament Pools Sleeper Teams

A "sleeper" team is a team whose performance exceeds expectations. The following teams, listed in order by team name, are the teams we expect to outplay their seeding.

2006 NCAA Tournament Analysis by Matt Satten

Total Wins By 2006 Sleeper Teams: 6 (6 Wins Expected Based On Seeds)

8. Geo Washington

Despite going undefeated in the Atlantic 10 and finishing with an 18-game win streak to end the regular season at 26-2, the Colonials only received an 8 seed from the selection committee. Here’s why: Top player Pops Mensah-Bonsu, the second-leading scorer and top rebounder, had minor surgery performed last week by the legendary Dr. James Andrews on his left knee because of a small cartilage tear. The injury to Pops exposed GW as they struggled against the likes of St. Bonaventure and Charlotte before getting derailed in the A-10 Tourney by Temple. Their poor non-conference schedule was also a major factor; we’ll see if facing cupcakes all season long has adequately prepared them for the Dance. The two times they faced Top 25 teams this season, they lost, so don’t hold your breath.

Key Player: The big question for GW is will Mensah-Bonsu be ready for action? He is expected back for GW's first-round NCAA Tournament game. He probably will be healthy enough to play but how effective will the high-leaper be?

Actual Wins: 1 (1 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

7. Georgetown

With wins over Duke and Pitt and having honed their game in the Big East, this Georgetown team could be quite a sleeper at the Dance. The younger John Thompson coaches this squad and uses more of a motion set than what’s usually seen at Georgetown and has no problem running you off screens all day to create easy looks. But no need to worry, they still rely on a big man inside. The current big fella is emerging star Roy Hibbert. The 7-2 sophomore is extremely active and obviously creates instant matchup problems.

Key Player: Aside from Hibbert, 6-9 sophomore forward Jeff Green can lead this Hoya team. He’s the top assist man on the squad, but he’s also the top turnover producer. If he can cradle the rock and make sure Hibbert gets enough touches, the Hoyas have potential to go on a rampage.

Actual Wins: 2 (1 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

13. Iona

Iona has all the right factors to do well in tourney play, but will this small time school stack up when faced with a major conference power like first-round opponent LSU? The ingredients are there: four four-year senior starters, outstanding guard play, excellent team three-point shooting and the ability to come from behind having won eight times when down 10 points or more. The nation’s highest scoring backcourt features Stevie Burtt playing alongside MAAC Defensive Player of the Year Ricky Solliver and his 16.2 ppg. The team also presents a different look because the motion offense they run is confounded by having three lefties in the lineup. The team shoots a ridiculous 41.1% from distance but they don’t put up many shots from out there. Expect that to change come tourney time.

Key Player: Burtt can be lights out and will need to be to counteract LSU’s relentless inside scoring. He’s seventh in the nation with 25.2 points per game.

Actual Wins: 0 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

7. Marquette

The Golden Eagles were surprisingly good in their first year in the Big East and was one of just three teams to knock off UConn this year. A young team featuring three freshman starters, senior Steve Novak is the undisputed BMOC for this squad. He’s quite possibly the nation’s top shooting big man since the 6-10 forward hits 97.3% of his free throws and an incredible 46.4% of his 8.6 3-point attempts per game. Opponents need to strap a homing device to Novak so that he’s blanketed every second of the game. Aside from their tendency to turn over the ball, their PG is talented freshman Dominic James who’s short in stature, but big on stats with 15.3 ppg, 5.4 apg and 4.5 rpg.

Key Player: It’s obviously Novak. He can pretty much get his shot whenever he wants since he’s so tall, but the Golden Eagles are going to have to work to get him open looks in the Tourney. A big time scorer and senior leaders, Marquette is dead in the water if he’s off his game.

Actual Wins: 0 (1 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

6. Michigan St

Say what you want about Michigan State’s regular season; Tom Izzo makes sure these guys are ready to win when the NCAA Tourney comes a knockin’. His Spartan squads have been to four Final Fours in the last seven seasons. Let that sink in for a second and then realize his No. 6 seeded team is possibly the strongest six seed of all time. Thanks to another powerful non-conference schedule which saw a win over Arizona and a triple-OT loss to Gonzaga, MSU is poised for a deep tourney run and is hopeful to match last season’s Final Four appearance. The team is filled with senior leadership and experience inside and out. Upperclassmen Maurice Ager, Paul Davis and Shannon Brown each average at least 17.5 ppg. UNC will have their hands full if both teams advance past the first round.

Key Player: Davis and the NBA have been talked about in the same breath since his freshman season. Fast forward four years and the 6-11 Davis is still manning the middle for State. He has serious talent and nearly averages a double-double, so as long as he stays out of foul trouble, MSU can always dump the ball down low and count on Davis to make a play.

Actual Wins: 0 (1 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

5. Nevada

Nevada is riding a 14-game winning streak that helped them capture their third straight WAC title and this year’s tournament as well. The Wolf Pack are an outstanding defensive team and work to limit opponents’ three-point shooting, holding them to just a 30 percent mark. They rebound decently enough and can dial it up from long distance when the orange is in their hands. This team is experienced and has a prime time stud in 6-11 junior Nick Fazekas. Fazekas was an important cog in this team’s Sweet 16 run two seasons ago and he’s now the reigning WAC Player of the Year. He’s capable of shouldering the load and directing this team deep into the Dance.

Key Player: Fazekas is equally adept at operating from the high or low post, so he’s guaranteed to see as many touches as humanly possible. That’s a great thing for Nevada who has ridden him all season long. An outstanding shooter from the field and the line, there are no real weaknesses in his game to exploit.

Actual Wins: 0 (1 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

11. San Diego St

Having won 18 of their last 20 games and the Mountain West Tourney title, the Aztecs enter the Dance on a wave of momentum. This is a quality team with three legit scoring options (who could turn out to be NBA players) and features a coach who won it all in Steve Fisher who did it with Michigan. Guard Bradon Heath was the MWC Player of the Year and has a soaking wet jumper from distance. Forward Marcus Slaughter stuffs the stat sheet too but it’s junior center Mohamed Abukar who is the difference maker. Abukar transferred from Florida and began playing in mid-season, the exact time when the Aztecs really took off.

Key Player: It’s got to be the bomber Heath. The team struggles when Slaughter doesn’t shoot well, but it’s Heath who will have to pop off if little fish SDSU wants to make a ripple in this big sea.

Actual Wins: 0 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

14. South Alabama

Winners of the Sun Belt Tourney by 25 points in the championship game, the Jaguars roll into the tourney on a hot streak with Ws in 11 of their last 12 games. The team is very deep with 11 guys seeing regular minutes including five seniors, enabling them to operate at a frenetic pace all game and constantly pressure the ball. They can also get out and hit the trifecta while defending it even better (29.7% allowed, good for third-best in the country). One advantage they have for sure in the first round is Coach John Pelfry was an assistant at Florida recently and knows Billy Donovan’s system inside and out.

Key Player: Senior guard Mario Jointer leads team in scoring, rebounding and steals. He’ll be relied upon to improve his numbers in what could be his last game.

Actual Wins: 0 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

12. Utah St

Utah State showed enough during the season and especially during the WAC Tourney to earn an at-large bid from the committee. The Aggies are third in the country in field goal percentage at an amazing 50.1 percent clip, are third in 3-point percentage at 41.9 percent and are sixth in assists per game with 18 a night. They like to keep scoring down on both ends to let their superior shooting provide the difference. They are the type of team that wears you down and annoys you with in your face defense and the ability to consistently hit clutch shots.

Key Player: Forward Nate Harris is the man to watch. The 62 percent field goal shooter missed the shot to win the conference championship and an automatic berth. Will he redeem himself or crack under the pressure now that he’s been given a shot at redemption?

Actual Wins: 0 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

7. Wichita St

The Shockers were regular-season champions of the Missouri Valley Conference, the best mid-major in the country. The MVC saw four teams put on their dancing shoes this year so the level of competition is as high as it’s ever been. The Shockers can adapt to whoever they play, because they are balanced enough to play at a slow or fast pace and work you inside or out. They can drill enough threes to keep you honest, which is vital with senior center Paul Miller patrolling the post.

Key Player: Miller is a legit center with severe talent; it’s too bad that the team can forget about him for stretches at a time. If they want to dance for more than a day, they will have to find a way to force feed Miller enough touches for him to be effective.

Actual Wins: 2 (1 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

15. Winthrop

The Big South champions for the sixth time in eight years, Winthrop is getting used to competition from the major conference teams and nearly upset Gonzaga last season. This team is a big time No. 15 seed and has a shot to upset a weak No. 2 seed in Tennessee, especially since they play a similar pressing defensive style and go against it every day in practice. The Eagles have a very balanced scoring attack so they aren’t reliant on one person, another advantage against a pressing team. Lastly, they jack up threes like it’s their mission, so one hot day is all you need.

Key Player: Junior Torrell Martin was on the All-Big South team and has to perform well in order for Winthrop to compete with anyone. It’s a shame that he’s such a lousy free throw shooter at just 54.2 percent.

Actual Wins: 0 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

11. Wisc Milwaukee

With its core back from last year’s Sweet 16 run, the Panthers won’t be in awe of anyone. One key ingredient that’s missing is their coach, as newcomer Rob Jeter takes over the reigns. Still, the Panthers start five seniors – all 23 years of age – and again won the Horizon League regular season and tournament title. They feature a troika of legitimate scorers in Joah Tucker, Boo Davis and big man Adrian Tigert, but they won’t be able to sneak up on anyone like they did last season, making another run into the Sweet 16 highly unlikely.

Key Player: Tucker creates matchup problems because he’s built for post play yet is able to step out and drain shots forcing his man away from the hoop and his comfort zone. Look for the Panthers to exploit whoever he faces up against.

Actual Wins: 1 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)