Tournament Pools Sleeper Teams

A "sleeper" team is a team whose performance exceeds expectations. The following teams, listed in order by team name, are the teams we expect to outplay their seeding.

2005 NCAA Tournament Analysis by Matt Satten

Total Wins By 2005 Sleeper Teams: 9 (3 Wins Expected Based On Seeds)

10. Creighton

After capturing the conference tourney, Dana Altman’s squad is again the class of the MVC, likely the best mid-major conference in the country with four teams cracking the RPI Top 100. The Bluejays lack size inside but it doesn’t matter since they live and die with the three-pointer. Considering the team strokes it at a magnificent 41.5 percent clip, the Jays are capable of beating a higher-seeded squad on only an average shooting night.

Key Player: Their leading scorer at 17.6 ppg, Nate Funk is a funktastic overall shooter and absolutely lethal from downtown, connecting at an insane 46.7 percent clip. His ability to catch fire may enable Creighton to blaze a few rounds into the Tourney.

Actual Wins: 0 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

4. Louisville

Coach Rick Pitino has gotta be pissed with just a No. 4 seed despite their 29-4 record and No. 6 ranking and he has every right to be. We guess the committee was less than impressed with the Cardinals surviving by the skin of their teeth in the Conference USA Championship game when Memphis’ Darius Washington Jr. missed two of three free throws with no time left. Still this is a club that wrecked shop in C-USA with a 14-2 mark and has won 18 of their last 19 games. It’s hard to call a No. 4 seed a sleeper, but if there ever was one, this team is it. Keep in mind, Louisville flamed out in the first round in ’03 and the second round last year.

Key Player: Do-everything junior forward Francisco Garcia is the real deal. He can create his own shot at any time and is butter from the line (87.2 percent), which is exactly why the ball is in his hands at the end of games. Garcia is a favorite for the All-Tournament team.

Actual Wins: 4 (2 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

6. LSU

The Tigers talented starting five will scare the crap out of most teams it faces, especially with two dangerous behemoths in unanimous SEC Player of the Year Brandon Bass and 6’9”, 315-pound “Big Baby” Davis controlling the paint and three capable scorers roaming the perimeter. If the bigs get into foul trouble, something they have a history of doing, LSU begins to become exposed. Point guard Tack Minor is quick as a whistle but can be erratic and sometimes forgets to feed the beasts.

Key Player: Just a sophomore, Bass is a special talent athletically and academically. He has the skill set and sheer will to take over this tournament.

Actual Wins: 0 (1 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

9. Nevada

This isn’t the same Nevada team as last year since Kirk Snyder has gone League. However, sophomore sensation Nick Fazekas has stepped up huge and become a terrific scorer and the Wolf Pack have welcomed WAC Freshman of the Year Ramon Sessions into the fold. Their most glaring weakness though is their inability to hit the three. It’s downright disgusting at just 27 percent. Despite the early loss in the WAC Tourney, this team won its last 10 regular season games and isn’t scared by anyone.

Key Player: The 6’11” Fazekas is already a 20 and 10 machine and is also the team’s best three-point shooter. If he’s in foul trouble, they’re toast, but if he’s on, look out.

Actual Wins: 1 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

12. New Mexico

The Lobos are one of hottest teams in country heading into the Dance having won 12 of their last 13 including the Mountain West Tournament and feature a true star in PF Danny Granger. In fact, it was Granger’s return from a knee injury that ignited this late season run. Three players can knock down the outside shot at over a 40 percent clip, but will they be able to continue that success against real opponents instead of the cupcakes they feasted on all year long? Also, for such a sweet shooting team, the Lobos are abysmal from the charity stripe.

Key Player: Granger is an NBA talent who stuffs the entire stat sheet with big time numbers. He’s capable of generating an upset or two for New Mexico all by himself.

Actual Wins: 0 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

14. Niagara

Much like the Phoenix Suns’ high-octane offense, Niagara plays full-throttle from tip to buzzer. A team used to a more reasonable pace or lacking depth is especially susceptible to the Purple Eagles potent running attack (85.2 ppg, 5th in nation). The core of this team is composed of the trio of Juan Mendez, David Brooks and Alvin Cruz, who have balled together for four years now and know each other’s games better than they know their own. The question is can their explosive offensive attack overcome their lack of height and serious defensive shortcomings?

Key Player: Cruz is the team’s floor general and orchestrates the furious pace, but the star of the squad is Mendez. If the 6’7” Montreal native can avoid foul trouble and hit his averages of 23.6 ppg, 10.5 rpg and 2.1 blocks, Niagara may fall into the Sweet 16.

Actual Wins: 0 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

10. No Carolina St

The Wolfpack will get a much needed boost if starters Tony Bethel and Jordan Collins return from their groin and shoulder injuries, respectively, after being absent for the ACC Tourney. Even so, Herb Sendek has his men playing great ball and peaking at the right time. Given their presence in the nation’s top Conference, their 19-13 record can be deceiving.

Key Player: Julius Hodge is the reigning ACC POY and will need to become more selfish if the Wolfpack want to advance to the second weekend of the Big Dance. Though he might not look the part, Hodge has game-breaking ability and the talent to be on the All-Tourney team if they pull a few upsets.

Actual Wins: 2 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

11. Northern Iowa

The third representative out of the premier mid-major MVC, the Panthers nearly ended Georgia Tech’s Final Four run before it got started. Relying on their ball-control offense and constant desire to spring shooting guard Ben Jacobsen open, the Panthers don’t beat themselves. If a team is strong on the interior, they can upend UNI, that’s if they survive the barrage of three-point attempts Northern Iowa rains down on them.

Key Player: If Jacobsen gets hot from outside, UNI can hang with anyone and might be able to pull off some late-game heroics.

Actual Wins: 0 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

11. Texas El Paso

The Miners won the WAC thanks to an earlier upset of regular season champ Nevada. Known for their scoring prowess – they led the nation in free throw shooting at 79.1 percent and led the WAC in scoring at 74.9 ppg – UTEP and leading scorer Omar Thomas can hang with any offensive-minded program. Once someone starts tightening the reigns, things could get a little dicey for this squad.

Key Player: Point guard Filbeto Rivera is a natural born point guard and doesn’t get nearly enough pub. He dropped 18 dimes and had 0 turnovers in a win over La. Tech earlier this year.

Actual Wins: 0 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

11. UAB

The last of the Conference USA at-large bids, UAB was able to upset Kentucky last year thanks to coach Mike Anderson’s adaptation of mentor Nolan Richardson’s “40 Minutes of Hell” full-court trapping defense that led Arkansas to three Final Four appearances in the early ’90s. The D begets the offense as UAB scores a ton of easy points of off turnovers, but they can be badly exposed by a quick guard with a tight handle.

Key Player: The team plays ten-deep with everyone getting at least 10 minutes/gm so it’s hard to identify one outstanding player. Squeaky Johnson sets the tone on offense with his pass-first mentality.

Actual Wins: 1 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

14. Utah St

The Aggies are a tight defensive squad that doesn’t allow points to come easily to their opponents. Equally as deliberate on offense, Utah State has an unusually high team shooting percentage at 53.1 thanks to starters Spencer Nelson and Nate Harris pumping in points at over a 60 percent clip. This is the type of team that doesn’t beat themselves with turnovers, sloppy play or wasted possessions – perfect for an upset or two.

Key Player: Nelson is their all-around superstar but it was the stellar play of frosh Jaycee Carroll that helped the team get over the hump against a ranked Pacific team that had beaten them twice already. Can he keep his MVP run going?

Actual Wins: 0 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

13. Vermont

Now in his senior season, stud F Taylor Coppenrath is back at the dance along with three other senior starters for the third straight year. The Catamounts are past that “happy to be here stage” and are seeking their first W. With averages of 25.7 ppg and 8.9 rpg, the 6’9” Coppenrath has the star power to totally dominate the game and the 37 points he dropped in the America East championship game are proof. All six of their losses this season came on the road, but that’s good news since their opening game is in Worcester, Mass., just a short trip south for Vermont backers.

Key Player: Playing in Coppenrath’s shadow, senior PG T.J. Sorrentine is one of the nation’s most underrated players. He can knock down the outside shot, penetrate at will and owns superior vision to find open teammates for easy looks.

Actual Wins: 1 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)

14. Winthrop

Carrying an 18-game winning streak into the NCAA’s, the Eagles are still seeking their first ever win at the Tourney. Playing a pressing defense with a rotation that sees nine players earning at least 10 minutes per game, Winthrop can excel by creating turnovers against an easily rattled or weak ball-handling squad. They also possess the type of team three-point shooting at 36.3 percent, that creates early-round upsets.

Key Player: While he might rock the No. 0 on his jersey, junior guard James Shuler is certainly more valuable than that. He’s the type of all-around player that makes his teammates better.

Actual Wins: 0 (0 Wins Expected Based On Seed)